What the Simulator Does
The simulator uses a genetic algorithm — an optimization technique inspired by natural selection — to evolve skin combinations across hundreds of generations until it converges on the highest expected-value contracts.
Think of it like breeding: the algorithm starts with random contracts, scores them by profitability, then combines the best performers and introduces mutations. After many iterations, what survives are contracts that maximize your return-to-player (RTP) while staying within your budget and constraints.
Configuring Your Search
Before running a simulation, configure these key parameters:
- Rarity — Select the input rarity tier (Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, or Covert)
- Depth — Controls how many generations the genetic algorithm runs. Higher depth means more exhaustive search. Guests get up to 50; logged-in users unlock up to 200
- StatTrak — Toggle to search only StatTrak contracts
- Skin Source — Choose between all skins, your inventory, or live market listings
Understanding the Results
After the simulation completes, you'll see the best contract found with these key metrics:
- RTP (Return to Player) — The expected return as a percentage of input cost. Above 100% means the contract is profitable on average
- Break-Even Probability — The chance that a single execution returns at least what you invested
- Input Cost — Total cost of all 10 input skins at current market prices
The result also shows every possible outcome with its probability, expected float, wear condition, and current market price.
Tips for Better Results
- Run at higher depth (100+) for serious trading — the algorithm finds significantly better contracts with more generations
- Try multiple rarity tiers; Restricted to Classified typically offers the best risk-reward balance
- Use skin locking to build contracts around skins you already own
- Compare results across different sources: average prices vs. live market listings can yield very different optimal contracts